Monetary policy of the central banks – inflation fears or preparation for stressful situations?

01.07.2026

Investors expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates two to a maximum of three times. This is not based on the trend in core inflation, which remains modest.

The focus is on headline inflation, particularly energy prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) is now also on a similar course, which is surprising given the weak economy. Either the central banks fear another massive rise in energy prices back to the highs of the last 12 months, or they wish to establish a higher baseline for the year 2028. 2028 could be a year of escalation, marked by numerous wars and conflicts. We recommend, even at this stage, incorporating financial instruments into portfolio construction that provide protection against inflation and interest rate rises.